UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

Re:UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says by matthewdgreen on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @07:39PM (#33713571)

The problem with this plan is that “the UK coming out of Brexit ‘up’” would be meaningfully bad for the EU if it encourages other countries to follow. And at the same time, the party with the greatest power to determine free trade agreements between UK/EU is the EU itself. This always struck me as the worst paradox of the whole idea: you’ve created an adversarial zero-sum environment where a much more powerful opponent determines your success.

In practice it doesn’t look this will even be an issue, since Brexit is already producing such bad results and losing popular support as demographic changes wipe out its base of support.

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Re:UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says by MoreSEMI on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @08:20PM (#33713872)

I feel as if this is putting the cart before the horse. If a brexit is a net benefit to countries, then they should leave the EU. There is no problem unless the country is ideologically attached to the EU.

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Re:UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says by TapWaterBandit on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @09:00PM (#33714186)

> In practice it doesn’t look this will even be an issue, since Brexit is already producing such bad results and losing popular support as demographic changes wipe out its base of support.

We shall see. Remember that when rejoining the EU are going to try and get the best deal possible for themselves. I think you'll find that public sentiment can turn very quickly under such circumstances.

You are also assuming no problems in the EU (such as an Italian debt crisis) meaning that rejoining has real negative downsides as well.

The final process to rejoin the EU would at a minimum look like this:

- Referendum on rejoining EU - Negotiations with EU on what exactly that would mean - Some sort of deliberative process to determine if rejoining under these conditions is acceptable.

This will not happen for another decade at a minimum. And a lot can happen in that time. And if part of that agreement is the UK loses control of its borders again then I would bet money on no agreement being reached.

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Re:UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says by Teever on Tuesday November 22, 2022 @09:53PM (#33714578)

The underlying assumption in this entire comment is that the EU will want the UK back.

Does the EU want the UK back?

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Re:UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says by TapWaterBandit on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @04:17AM (#33716894)

I would say the underlying assumption is that the EU will want a free trade agreement (or some variation of one) with the UK for their own benefit. And considering the mutual advantages here I think this is a fair assumption to make.

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Re:UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says by halpmeh on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @06:26AM (#33717859)

It’s also in the EU’s interest to make the UK a pariah. A lesson to others on the dangers of leaving the bloc. I don’t see the EU caring so much about restoring free trade with the UK. It would present an image of groveling and send the wrong message.

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Re:UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says by imtringued on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @08:56AM (#33719105)

Italian debt crisis? You mean that the EU will bail out German and British banks like with Greece?

Remember, the debtors aren't being bailed out, the creditors are. Otherwise creditors would import products from these countries and be made whole very easily if it was about bailing out the debtors.

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