Example for Heating
A German price comparison site has done the calculation and for their model – 20m² home office and a yearly usage of ~2000 litres heating oil for the whole apartment) – you would end up with ~4% higher usage [0]. That means that you have 80 litres more heating oil which is equivalent to roughly 80 days of commuting 20 km / day via car. The German average commuter does ~32 km / day [1].
[0]: https://www.verivox.de/presse/modellrechnung-homeoffice-erho...
[1]: https://www.postbank.de/themenwelten/beruf-vorsorge/artikel_...
Your comment on the second+ order effects is much more interesting, but also much more uncertain.
I don't think the solution to that is "commute to the office where it's more efficient to heat all of us", though.
It's a long-term city-planning/suburb-planning, environmental architecture problem.
What about buildings semi-recessed into the ground (bedrooms in basement, use the surrounding ground for heat storage, sky-lights to allow sunlight in)? What about further adoption of solar panels for water heating and supplemental electricity? What about "keeping the door shut so the heat doesn't escape"...? What about neighbourhoods using communal heat pumps?
Then there's the fact that a helluva lot of us can't even afford these houses you mention because the housing market is in crisis so we continue to stay in our smaller city flats despite our ability to work remotely.
Like, there's a helluva lot more white collar office workers out there in Western civilisation who _aren't_ following that "get enough money, get a car, have 2.5 kids, move out to the 'burbs" life - don't forget about us.
We only get groceries twice a month. I only drive a 2-3k miles a year which is far below average in the U.S. and I owe it all to the lack of commute. Most of those miles are due to the fact that we own a cabin in another state which we visit in the summer as well and has nothing to do with the day to day.
I also live in Seattle where a majority of the homes weren’t built with AC. Offices will run the AC units all summer long too.
Everybody spending 8 more hours at home means so much more individual heating, whereas before, when you went into the office you'd turn the heating off.
Also as someone else pointed, working remote leads to leaving small apartments in the city to move into larger spaces (houses) in the suburbs. Then you would need to use a car more to meet people, get groceries etc. Cities are much more carbon efficient.