At that point Wales is probably east to call it a day as well.

Part of the problem is as the empire is shrinking London and England becomes more dominating. Each piece leaning reinforces this so I think if Northern Ireland and Scotland leaves wales will do so too. And perhaps even smaller pieces although that doesn’t look likely today.

Another factor is that Scotland stayed last time as border trade is the most important for Scotland. Not that UK is crashing it’s more likely they would leave.