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A comment on Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says. Parent comment

Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by nyolfen on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:45PM (#33672528)
ukraine itself (or perhaps a close intelligence ally like lithuania), with its constant pressuring of the west to escalate the conflict (including calls for direct strikes on russia), seems like the most likely candidate. there were backchannel efforts between germany and russia to open negotiations prior to the sabotage -- removing NS gas from the equation entirely for germany takes some of the wind out of those sails. besides this we have seen a great deal of ukrainian sabotage of other russian assets and infrastructure in recent months.
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by MichaelCollins on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:48PM (#33672567)
Ukraine had the strongest motive, but the least technical ability (to do this specifically) of all the suspects, including Russia.
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by Gibbon1 on Saturday November 19, 2022 @04:07PM (#33674682)
I think Ukraine isn't as backwards as people assume. And also has legal justification since they are at war with Russia. A crass motive is blowing up a pipeline that wasn't being used forces Russia to devote military resources to protect their oil and gas infrastructure elsewhere.
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by ASalazarMX on Saturday November 19, 2022 @06:33PM (#33676167)
Western support of Ukraine is supposedly conditioned to defense of their own territory, not attacking Russian territory. This would be outside of that condition, so if they did it, it's best to keep it under.

It's more telling if they don't say, that would mean a Russian or Russian-allied operation is unlikely, because there is no political cost for shaming them even more.

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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by nyolfen on Sunday November 20, 2022 @11:33AM (#33682366)
NS was not on russian territory, it was sabotaged in international waters just a few km outside of danish territory
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by ASalazarMX on Sunday November 20, 2022 @02:15PM (#33684179)
Still outside of Ukrainian territory, the condition for NATO support. And it only transports gas from Russia to Germany, with the winter approaching. Even more telling, the US statement in reaction to this was "a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy".
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by Gibbon1 on Sunday November 20, 2022 @06:19PM (#33686614)
I think western weapons come with those conditions for now. But Ukraine is free to attack targets inside/outside of Russia with their own stuff.
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by nyolfen on Sunday November 20, 2022 @10:09PM (#33688243)
hmm, maybe someone should tell nato about the assassination attempt on alexander dugin inside russia, the suicide bomb attack on russian infrastructure, the helicopter raids into russian territory, etc
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by nyolfen on Sunday November 20, 2022 @11:38AM (#33682425)
i don't think this attack is really as sophisticated as you seem to; the pipeline was about 80-100m underwater -- the ukrainians have (or had) oil platforms in the black sea which would require divers capable of operating at such depths. getting away with it is definitely impressive though.
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by tsimionescu on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:49PM (#33672585)
Possible, though that would require sending Ukrainian ships and agents a very very far way away. I don't think a clandestine Ukrainian operation on the other side of Europe is very likely in the middle of a war on their own territory.
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by nyolfen on Saturday November 19, 2022 @12:56PM (#33672673)
spiegel posted this a few months ago, claiming that the CIA warned the germans that the russians had intelligence that the ukrainians were planning to sabotage NS:

https://archive.ph/v7FL4

>The Germans were warned in summer by the CIA about a possible attack scenario on the Nord Stream pipelines. U.S. intelligence claimed to have intercepted Russian communications in which concerns were expressed about possible Ukrainian attacks on Western infrastructure. The Ukrainians allegedly tried to rent a boat in Sweden for this purpose. The CIA did not consider the scenario of a Ukrainian attack to be very credible, but the mere fact that the possibility of an attack on Western infrastructure was mentioned by the Russian side prompted the Americans to warn the Germans about the scenario.

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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by kjeetgill on Saturday November 19, 2022 @02:34PM (#33673744)
If that's the case, why would Russia accuse the UK?
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by selivanovp on Monday November 21, 2022 @02:50AM (#33689970)
UK was the most active one in supplying and teaching Ukraine to use sea drones for sabotage. Recent attack on Sevastopol and other Russian ports were done by these drones. UK is also known to operate submersible sabotage drones. So it’s basically the moat probable scenario, that UK provided ships, drones and explosives, and some Ukrainian pressed the button.
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by Isinlor on Saturday November 19, 2022 @05:01PM (#33675233)
Sounds like extremely reliable Chinese whispers.

He said that she said that he heard that she said that he was planning to do it.

Obviously it was him!

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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by nyolfen on Sunday November 20, 2022 @10:12PM (#33688267)
one of the leading german publications published a claim about german intelligence and and a diplomatic exchange. you can find it compelling or not, but it is not some kind of dubious rumor
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Re:Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says by Isinlor on Monday November 21, 2022 @01:08AM (#33689404)
It's dubious rumour by German intelligence if the publication is correct. The claimed original source of the intel - Russian intelligence - is already extremely unreliable and adversarial. And then we add Chinese whispers game on top.

It's silly to give any credibility to this type of rumour. We should all wait for hard evidence and if there are none or if it can't be made public, then for courts verdicts.

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