Re:Is This the End of Crypto?
by imtringued on Friday November 18, 2022 @09:15AM
(#33654999)
If these people followed the savings logic they would have bought and sold RAI. Why would anyone want to put their savings in an extremely volatile cryptocurrency?
Also, because the US$ has itself lost about 10% of its value over that last year, the fall is even worse in real terms than in nominal terms, closer to 75%.
Over other periods of time, like the last two years or the last six months, this is not the case (that is, the peso has done worse than Bitcoin over those periods), and certainly anyone with savings in Bitcoin is hoping that a year from now it is at or near its current value, or even above it, rather than having fallen another 70% to US$4500. But it could. There is no guarantee, and my observation of periods of past Bitcoin volatility does not make me optimistic that scam artists will go away as a result.
There is no prospect that the peso will have equal or higher value a year from now; both the general dynamics of central-bank-controlled fiat currencies and the specific pathologies of Argentina militate strongly against it. The long-run expected value of the peso is zero — it's not a question of whether it will inflate over time, just how fast. Plausibly ruining the peso's usefulness as a unit of long-term account or a vehicle for savings is a worthwhile tradeoff for improving its usefulness as a medium of exchange; that opinion certainly has widespread acceptance among economists.
So clearly anyone who invests their savings in pesos will inherit the wind; it's possible that whoever invests their savings in Bitcoin will as well.
But maybe not.