Re:Show HN: The German Job Market Is Crashing
by vernon99 on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @05:48PM
(#33616288)
Have you checked the chart linked by OP? It has data for the same period of the last year and there’s no such drop so it disproves the seasonality thesis.
There could be something else of course. But also possible that some companies are being hit by energy crisis.
Re:Show HN: The German Job Market Is Crashing
by omgwtfbyobbq on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @11:54PM
(#33619038)
It may disprove it. Another possibility is COVID affecting the numbers from last year.
I'd like to see monthly numbers for at least a couple political cycles, or better yet for several stock market cycles.
I talk to HR people from different companies (in Berlin) from time to time and they still complain about the lack of skilled workers. Lastly, there is an armada of economic institutes in Germany that do not foresee a "job market crash" either. Jobs are a lagging indicator and the German economy is still growing. Only next year will there be a slight recession.
P.S.: For a good statistical analysis, the data source should be mentioned (which website), different sources (e.g. different portals, different source). A data lake otherwise does not make much for an alarmist analysis.