Completely depends on the market. A 45 minute drive from my locale in any direction is a totally different market, with differing prices, inventory, and local nuances. To the east - that area didn’t see prices increase much over the past few years. To the south - been a very steady but gradual increase. Locally, prices basically doubled in a three year span, but are now in a holding pattern. Your market is likely entirely different from mine and you could be completely right in your hypothesis.

This is my take. The fed seems interested in cutting housing prices, and I'm not one to bet against their ability to do so.