Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic but I actually believe the tide is turning on Prop 13 and it may well get repealed in the next decade. I'd probably still bet it won't be repealed but I feel like there's a real chance.

"Throwing seniors out of their homes" was effectively used to give incumbent homeowners a massive tax break. Worse, it gave Disney a massive decades-long tax break. What people often don't talk about with respect to Prop 13 is how it benefitted corporations.

Corporations end up owning property in LLCs and they simply buy and sell the LLCs. This doesn't technically count as a transfer (which would trigger a revaluation for tax purposes) so Disney in Anaheim is paying a tax rate for their theme park that was capped (with 1-2% max annual increases) in the 1960s.

The other horrible part is you can inherit a decades-old preferential tax rate. I mean, you wouldn't want to kick people out of their parents' home would you?

California needs to be more like Texas in this regard. Reassess for property tax frequently. Allow property tax deferral for seniors who don't want to move. And there's no beneficial tax rate to inherit.

> Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic but I actually believe the tide is turning on Prop 13 and it may well get repealed in the next decade. I'd probably still bet it won't be repealed but I feel like there's a real chance.

Why do you think there's a chance?

Almost 80% of home-owners vote - and the CA home-ownership rate is above 55%. Usually less than 50% of renters vote.

Prop 13 is currently popular with both liberal politicians (think about the poor old ladies who'd have to move!) - and conservatives (we actually like regressive taxes).

I can't even see a path to start being hopeful in the next 10 years.

> California needs to be more like Texas in this regard.

California and Texas both need to drop sales/income/property taxes entirely and replace them with land value taxes.

I'm less optimistic than ever. Voters recently rejected the split roll property tax ballot initiative, which would have affected Disney but not their home property tax.

If most people in California are renters, then Prop 13 doesn't apply to them anyway. So maybe in 10 years we will see Prop 13 being repealed.

We had a Prop 13 challenge in 2020 called Prop 15. The idea was to "split" the way Prop 13 works so that homeowners would still have Prop 13, but commercial properties would not (after a phase in of 5 years or something). It was rejected 52-48 in a historical voter turnout election.

I was surprised it failed, but it cemented the idea for me that Prop 13 is untouchable.

That was an extremely evil proposition, and would have put me and many other small businesses out of business. You see, big companies like Apple get to negotiate with their local governments for commercial property tax rates, but small businesses are paying full list price. Adobe, for example, is paying almost no property tax in its San Jose tower, but the businesses like the electrical contractor, the body shop, and the metal shop on my block pay list price. If prop 15 passed, the increased cost would have put them all under.

The people who supported prop 15 are evil and racist (it would have put many minority businesses out of business). The only businesses left would be giant corporations who could make deals.

Prop 15 would have made all business pay the same rate. If you think there should be a lower rate for minority owned or small businesses, that's fine, but a subsidy based on the age of your business is not good policy.

No. Big businesses that build their corporate HQ get to negotiate with the county for property tax rates. Small business that buy small buildings don't.

You have every right to want to see small businesses replaced by corporate megaliths, but don't pretend you're doing that out of "fairness." That's evil.

Don’t big businesses try to do this everywhere in the US? What does that have to do with prop 13?

That’s why “Prop 15” which would have overturned prop 13 protection for business but not homeowners was so obscene: it would only adversely affect small Mom & Pop businesses. Big mega corporations could negotiate.

Big corporations already negotiate subsidies, even with Prop 13. This just makes one less thing that they pay less on by default. You were hoodwinked.