That was the point I was making with those examples: that technology evolves independently of the stock market. So if it's time to build the Apple I or Altair Basic, do it whether the economy is good or bad.
And that's the lesson for me. All I can control is my immediate situation. The other stuff is just noise best drowned out by hard work at things I enjoy.
You do touch upon this a little bit in your article, where you mention startups that save customers money will succeed more in a bad economy. But I thought the more general assertion wasn't made.
So it depends if you want to be "well off" (Stallman), "obscenely rich" (Torvalds), "shockingly rich" (Jobs), or "embarassingly rich" (Gates).
And I think that most would, given the choice, rather be the BDFL of a project they obviously enjoy (Torvalds), than spend all day in meetings, or managing management, or whatever Gates has done for the last decade. Unless you're a masochist, or a megalomaniac.
And besides that, lightning has to strike the same place 200 times before you make it to the 99.9th percentile.
"I'm trying to make a living; if you're trying to make a killing then you're stuck in the system."
I've heard rumors that Torvalds wishes he had the money Jobs and Gates have. So, yeah, a little unhappy.
>And besides that, lightning has to strike the same place 200 times before you make it to the 99.9th percentile.
That's if you're in a bell-curve. If you're in a zipf-distribution, lightning only has to strike once.
It's not a bug, it's a feature.
(Here, "better" = chance of becoming profitable, and relevant to the web, for the long term; "better" != chance of cashing out for megabucks within a year or two; i.e. "better" for me as a web user.)
There are very good waves to ride right now. For example: Cloud computing, IPv6, Energy Saving, and moving everything out there to AJAX.
All of those will obsolete other technologies and most will save money.
Other fields (solar, biotech, whatever) might require way more money to start. For real stuff, like machines, not for swag and parties.
Having nothing than an idea, how do you convince a VC that you need a ton of money, given the current economic situation?
As we build, this point still amazes me. If you're willing to put in the time and effort, the cost is not prohibitive. Build in spite of the VCs, not because of them. If your product is good enough, users will force them to find a path to your door. And, of course, you still have a day and a half:
Right. The next wave is further electrification, new power generation, and first world infrastructure renewal. New advanced rail and massive rail line build outs. Rebuilding sewage and water systems. Alternative energy. Revamping agriculture for expensive oil and scarce fresh water will also be a big hi-tech area.
I'm sure the garage hackers will make money here and there as part of the wave, but they will be auxiliary; not like with the PC or internet booms. The main stage will be the capital intensive stuff working with actual raw materials.
One thing that worries me personally about starting the "stereotypical" HN startup right now, is that I think the free/fremium model is going to lose steam FAST. My prediction is that you will see more companies trying to start monetizing their web-app soon. FWIW, TipJoy is well positioned to take advantage of this if my prediction is true.
Of course, I've always been a hardware/product startup hacker, but I've had a couple of rounds in software and Web 2.0 companies. So, I'm not as immersed in web-app funding cycles as some others here are.
I would look to solar and certain other viable alternative energy options right now as the next major tech growth sector. I think the tech startup world needs to see more "inventions" (again, admitting my own bias).
While many here may disagree with me, one of the problems with web-apps is that while they are cheap to get going (relatively speaking), I think that the saturation of non-revenue producing web-app companies, coupled with the low cost of starting them, will make many traditional VCs look elsewhere for their next investments. The web-app community needs more investors like YC, that keep the investments and process realistic.