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Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by jfengel on Thursday October 27, 2022 @01:18PM (#33360843)
The reversals in the housing market will be unpleasant, but they go hand in hand with all of the overpriced housing we've had for the last decade.

The Fed failed to follow its own policy, of taking the punch bowl away when the party gets going. It allowed the economy to heat up for too long, and thus the inevitable reversals. Averaged over a few decades it will be the same 3-4% GDP growth that we would have gotten if they'd taken a stronger hand in taming the business cycle.

Their goal is to contain the booms so that the busts aren't so bad. Having let the boom go on, there is no choice but for a bad bust to happen. It would be nice if they'd learn their own lesson for next time, a decade or so away... but unfortunately, everybody loves low interest rates and a roaring economy.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by banannaise on Thursday October 27, 2022 @05:09PM (#33364086)
I hate the use of the term "housing" when what we mean is "land". Building materials haven't gotten obscenely more expensive. Building labor hasn't gotten obscenely more expensive. Land has gotten obscenely more expensive.

We are also reaching a point where consumers drive the price of residential land less and less. How much difference does the mortgage rate make when the market is increasingly driven by commercial buyers, who don't use mortgages?

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by imtringued on Friday October 28, 2022 @02:43AM (#33368377)
There is no karma system in economics. There is no such thing as having to do a "bust" as if it is some backlog of tasks you have forgotten to work on or a divine punishment from God you must endure. A bust just means the interest rate is above the return on investment in the actual economy. That's it.

"Taming the business cycle" is an empty phrase.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by jfengel on Friday October 28, 2022 @09:22AM (#33371051)
There is no karma, but there is a long-term tendency for real economic growth in about the 3-4% range. It's a combination of innovation and increased population. The latter is pretty consistent; the former is not, and yet seems remarkably steady.

You can increase the rates a small amount by borrowing money, but not indefinitely. Eventually, that borrowed money causes inflation, because it increases the money supply. And eventually, people get antsy, and try to cement their gains.

That's not karma, it's psychology. It's how people have behaved, and it's as predictable as anything ever gets in economics. It doesn't take a deity to invoke a bust; it just takes humans.