It is wild that we take at face value anything that the fed says. For example, they said in 2021 that they expected interest rates would be zero until 2024 (https://www.ft.com/content/3d7704d3-a312-4294-95bc-90233f469...). They obviously have a lot of real power, but they must be understood to either be deceitful or incompetent. This means that their messaging does have value, but it can't be taken at face value.

Did the fed actually say this? There were a bunch of investment bankers who did, and it seems like everyone else ran with the narrative. I haven't seen that the fed actually said it. I think all the fed cares about is bringing down inflation, but if the primary factors in inflation are supply related then unemployment doesn't have to go up for inflation to come down.

> Did the fed actually say this?

No [1].

[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/mone...

Yes, but not directly. If you listen to the last FOMC meeting, Powell mentions there will likely be significant weakening of the labor market and a rise of unemployment. As well as his famous "there will be pain" remarks.

I don't think he directly said "he won't stop until" though.

Yeah, I mean maintaining full employment is one of the fed's mandates. It would be an insane thing for a fed chair to just come out and say. I assume he want's to keep his job, and pissing off the Senate isn't the way to go about that.

Unlike smooth talking politicians, the Federal Reserve actually tries to be honest about the effects of their policies. This is something that should be applauded, not exploited as a means to get political capital.

I'm not sure why you think this is true. For month's Powell has been shifting the narrative. First it was under control, then it was a soft landing, now it's going to be a rough landing. What'll it be tomorrow?

I don't think they're being dishonest. I think they're constrained in how forthright they can be, lest they trigger a market reaction.

> I think they're constrained in how forthright they can be, lest they trigger a market reaction.

This is why I said that they try to be honest. Doctors are also inclined to err on the side of optimism when they are uncertain. The difference is that nobody is making conspiracy theories about doctors actually wanting to make their patients sick.

Tell that to Fauci.

Jerome Powell said this several times to Congress.

You’ll be able to find it, I believe in you.

> Jerome Powell said this several times to Congress

No, he didn’t [1]. The Fed’s statements to Congress are tightly scripted, in part so professionals can pick the meat from such popular nonsense.

[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20...

tightly scripted to be vague

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/powell-si...

> Powell told reporters several times that a softer labor market may be necessary to sufficiently bring down demand.

Which is so strange and violates two of their three mandates - maximum employment and moderate interest rates.

You don't want to fuck around with inflation because at a certain point it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy (ie. merchants raise prices pre-emptively just because they internalize inflation at a high steady state).

maximum employment is a pandemic period objective. they aren't intending to crush the labor market. the fed has largely behind the curve in addressing inflation.

the mandate is maximum employment and 0% inflation.

So strange. It’s almost as if they’ve picked a side in the conflict between supporting labor or capital.

HN is capital not labor.

Indeed. We are in fact conversing on a website that is a marketing forum for a multi-billion dollar private equity firm.

So the low interest rates for the past decade that reduced unemployment must mean that they love labor right?

The Fed has two mandates, not three:

https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-english/the-fed-and-the-...

"... maximum employment and price stability"

This seems like an easily accessible conspiracy theory but I think all the fed wants to do is bring down inflation.

Why not pull support for Ukraine let Russia win and ease those tensions