I've run the original jabberd server for an organizations internal chat server along with all the open source bells and whistles that go with it. Let me tell you I didn't once see the value of that except to save money and for privacy. But it was an organisation. If we want open federated communication the standout thing has to be the ease of use, the quality of experience and to actually highlight it's benefits. Right now I don't see that.
I know at least one project aiming to fill the same gap for organizations though (again, using XMPP), but pre-release currently: https://prose.org/
I'm a firm believer in essentially what you said: The protocol doesn't matter, it's all about the products and what they can do and how easy they are to deploy and use.
It' s not necessarily a better user experience but it provides a far better user independence, and that definitely counts.
XMPP, again and again. But that's not a solution, because the problem is absolutely not technical.