> That’s not fraud in the legal sense, is it? If he’s constantly wrong about the timing?

There is fraud in the legal sense and the colloquial sense. If I describe myself as a genius programmer, but am actually quite below average, I'm probably not legally on the hook for fraud, but me peers might call my one.

Similarly if you continually claim year after year that full self driving is a year away your either clueless about how long it'll take and how difficult a problem it is, while also being too clueless to realize how clueless you are (despite being so consistently wrong), and a colloquial fraud, or you know darn good and well that your claims are wrong and are just putting them out there to boost your stock price (potentially legal fraud).