News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:A global house-price slump is coming by echelon on Friday October 21, 2022 @12:16PM (#33289674)
The other side of supply/demand is the supply.

People sitting on 2% mortgages are not going to move. There's a lot of housing inventory that's locked away now [1].

We're going to enter a lower supply, lower demand market. The prices might not move much.

[1] Maybe downsizing Boomers will balance this. I'm not aware of any measures of this trend, though. And a lot of Boomers just sold/downsized to take advantage of the high prices.

Re:A global house-price slump is coming by nathanaldensr on Friday October 21, 2022 @12:21PM (#33289751)
Nearly my entire neighborhood consists of old Gen Xers and Boomers living in 2500-3500 sq ft houses, sometimes alone. It's insane. These people have decades to live in many cases. They are taking up these huge houses in smaller cities like mine so where are families going to go?
Re:A global house-price slump is coming by shagie on Friday October 21, 2022 @01:29PM (#33290701)
As one of those genx with a house larger than I need... yes.

The flip side of that is when I bought this hose from (looking it up) silent generation owner who was moving to a nursing home, there wasn't any other housing inventory in the price range and area and cost. Buying an old house and fixing it up over the years was much cheaper than buying a new house another half an hour out of town that costs 2x-3x more.

The buying a small house new house is still 2x-3x more than this old house would sell for.

Other than that this is a big house, there is no reason to sell it at this time. Additionally, the new development that is being built is targeting the most money that can be packed into a single lot... and... well, I don't want or need that.

If people want me to move out, build a nice 1-2 br 1.5 bath with a room for a home office on the quiet end of a street. I don't need a fancy kitchen. I don't need a place for fancy plates to show off in the dining room. I don't need a man cave with a bar or a three car garage... just something nice and sensible.

And yes, it is certainly a problem. Housing supply has been woefully under built for a decade or more, and that which is there is not targeting what remains of the middle aged middle class that sees a 30 year mortgage when they're 40 as absurd. The less expensive supply is often getting bought up by people speculating, as a rental property (either by a landlord or by a company).

Which brings us to "I've got a house, its paid off, going anywhere else reduces my net worth and gives me some debt that I'm unlikely going to be pay off before I retire - there is no reason to move at all."

Re:A global house-price slump is coming by mancerayder on Friday October 21, 2022 @03:00PM (#33291793)
Not everyone is "fit" for living in dense cities with shared walls, noisy streets and crowded environs. There's a psychological component to being embedded with many people 24/7 that is under-appreciated here, when people fantasize about the ideal society of walkable cities, proportionally-sized dwellings, and density. The latter is for the single, the young and the adventurous. The old cranks like myself grow out of it and long for a few thousand feet without noisy student neighbors playing music in the middle of the night or having parties.

Not to mention waiting in lines everywhere to go, and being forced to rub shoulders with lunatics when you need to commute for work or shopping.

At this stage of the game I'm ready for the 2500 sf house.

Re:A global house-price slump is coming by jjav on Friday October 21, 2022 @04:42PM (#33292816)
> Nearly my entire neighborhood consists of old Gen Xers and Boomers living in 2500-3500 sq ft houses, sometimes alone.

Where is this? I'd love a place where single people can afford a 3500sqft house?

Here in silicon valley it takes two tech salaries to afford a 1300sqft box.

Re:A global house-price slump is coming by echelon on Friday October 21, 2022 @05:04PM (#33293019)
> Where is this? I'd love a place where single people can afford a 3500sqft house?

Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, ...

Re:A global house-price slump is coming by rdtwo on Friday October 21, 2022 @12:42PM (#33290068)
I see a future for a new financial product where the existing owner keeps paying the 2.5% motgage but is sells an option where he’s contractually required to sell it for the balance of the mortgage and rent the house for the current mortgage payment. In the old days there was a transferable loan, those don’t exist now but you need a new product to extract value out of an artificially low existing mortgage
Re:A global house-price slump is coming by makestuff on Friday October 21, 2022 @02:13PM (#33291209)
That kind of exists with an assumable mortgage https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/what-is-an-assumable-mo...