Ya, this is not like 2008 where interest rates were low AND housing prices collapsed, which actually did make houses more affordable. This happened because the recession was specifically about real estate and the bad mortgage loans blowing up. Since this is not happening now, even if housing prices stagnate or go down a bit, unless you are paying with cash, things are not going to be more affordable since rates are up.

I don’t see why the Covid peak couldn’t all blow off. Very few new buyers actually bought then and will be underwater

Ya but being underwater doesn't really matter if you plan on living there for a long while. People will need a good reason to sell their house, like no longer being able to make payments due to job loss etc. (or they bought like 10 houses like in early 2000's...) So as long as the rest of the economy is okayish, I just see prices stagnating for a while. Also, inflation actually helps when you have a fixed mortgage...

You forget margin calls (mortgages with margin call provisions are illegal in California, and probably some other states in the US).

Basically, your mortgage says you have to maintain N% down. So, if the house price drops enough, you make a balloon payment or the bank forecloses, and sells the house at auction.

Once margin calls start triggering, there's an automatic sell off of whatever asset is impacted, causing more margin calls and a feedback loop.

90% of Britain's pension funds were hours away from being zeroed out by margin calls a few weeks ago. The Bank of England intervened.

It made for some great reading. This is why the UK gov't keeps walking back the mini-budget, and the IMF is making noises usually reserved for failing dictatorships.

I wish the "it's all supply side" meme would go away. With Western countries importing millions upon millions of people from other countries--and sometimes, implicitly importing them with wide-open borders like the US--the demand side is at least as much at fault. Western country birth rates are already near replacement levels; we shouldn't have to be building more housing in the first place!

What kind of racist spiel is this?

The US is below replacement rate on 3rd generation+ families, and would experience an aging crisis like Japan if it were not for immigration. You're 'wide open borders' statement is just a dog whistle.

This is heckin' bad faith

> importing them with wide-open borders like the US

I get when some small country like switzerland complains.

But what the fuck is going on with the US - you people have a giant country, all of mexico could move in and it wouldn't make a dent!

As someone currently sponsoring my immigrant spouse, I can first-hand tell you: the US immigration process is probably a lot more complicated, slow, burdensome, and frustrating than you think it is. It's expected to take 18 months and over $2,000 in various fees before my (currently undocumented) spouse will get a green card, and be able to begin working legally in this country.