Do you have a source for this?

Anecdotally, most of my older relatives spent 20+ years working at the same place. Meanwhile I’ve had 4 different employers in the last decade and don’t know many young folks in tech who have stayed with a company for 5+ years. (Why would you if you can only move up in position or salary by job hopping?)

In my anecdotal social circle, which skews older millennial with no tech representation outside of myself, I only know of one person who has jumped around to several jobs. A small handful have changed jobs once. The vast majority are where they started, 15+ years in.

The boomers lived through 11% unemployment. It may not have been job hopping by choice.

Am I reading you right? You are saying that the vast majority of people in your social circle have been in the same job for 15+ years, and yet they are under age 50?

That would be astonishing, unless you are in some really unique industry.

Perhaps if it's one of the big consulting firms, maybe. They start right out of university and then follow a career track which can easily go 15 years to partner level. And for those willing and able to live that life, I imagine they don't change jobs as often as others.

Seems so. I don't see it being all that astonishing. Where else are you going to go? For normal people not in tech there aren't a thousand startups calling your name. There might be one or two competitors that aren't able to pay any more and would be a lateral move at best, which isn't worth the risk of hopping unless things are horrible where you are. A fair number work for government, so that's your only option save completely changing careers.

Thanks. Goes to show the plural of anecdote is not data.

Depends on the industry. For many people in IT, changing jobs every few years is pretty standard, as is relocating if a good enough opportunity pops up.

I'm going to need a citation on that.

Numbers would be interesting to compare to the widespread discussion on HN that makes it seem common.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/tenure.t01.htm and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf

The numbers go down as the year goes.

Additionally, the median length of the tenure goes up with age. For men...

    ....   2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022
    25-34   3.2    3.1    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
    35-44   5.4    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.1    5.0
    45-54   8.5    8.2    8.4    8.1    8.2    7.5
    55-64  10.7   10.7   10.2   10.2   10.0   10.0

From the pdf, if we go to Computer and mathematical occupations (which software developers are classified under)

    ....   2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022
            4.8    5.0    4.4    4.3    3.9    4.2

Table 2 pdf will also be of interest - Table 2. Percent of employed wage and salary workers 25 years and over who had 10 years or more of tenure with their current employer by age and sex, selected years, 2012-2022

Those are short-term stats though. Go back 50 years in IPUMS for context. I don't dispute that the recent trend is as you state.

What the numbers were 50 years ago is of little practical meaning in this context. The recent trend is exactly what we're talking about.

Not only does the recent trend show tenures declining, but it also shows home ownership declining since the peak in 2004.

So more job turnover and less home ownership does mean more likelihood of moving, whether to find new jobs or to work remotely.

Adding in the tenure report form 40 years ago: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/09/rpt3full.pdf

    ....   1982 : 2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022
    25-34   2.5    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
    35-44   4.9    5.4    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.1    5.0
    45-54   8.4    8.5    8.2    8.4    8.1    8.2    7.5
    55-64  11.9   10.7   10.7   10.2   10.2   10.0   10.0

Though the report that you're most likely interested in is https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1984/10/art2full.pdf

> In 1983, more than 1 worker in 3 aged 35 to 44 had been with the same employer 10 years or longer and almost the same ratio of workers 45 and older had worked for the same employer 20 years or more

> Among the principal findings:

> One worker in 6 has been with his or her employer for at least 15 years. Among workers aged 45 and over, nearly one-third have been with their current employer for 20 years or more.

Comparing that with the current one https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf table 3

    ....   <12m  : 13-23m :   2y   :  3-4y  :  5-9y  : 10-14y : 15-19y : 20+y
    20+    22.3% :   5.6% :   5.1% :  18.4% :  20.6% :  10.1% :   6.7% : 11.2%
    35-44  19.2% :   5.3% :   4.7% :  18.8% :  25.4% :  14.0% :   9.2% :  3.4%
    45-54  12.9% :   4.0% :   3.9% :  15.4% :  21.2% :  13.2% :  10.4% : 18.9%
    55-64  11.6% :   2.5% :   2.5% :  12.6% :  19.3% :  12.6% :  10.1% : 28.9%

(the 20+ row is everyone aged 20 and older)

The corresponding for 2022 would be:

> 2022, about 1 worker in 4 aged 35 to 44 has been with the same employer or longer, which is almost the same ratio as workers 45 to 54 working for the same employer for 20 years or more.

> Amount the principal findings:

> One worker in 18 has been with his or her employer for at least 15 years. Amount workers aged 45 to 45, less than one fifth has been with their current employer 20 years or more. This climbs to slightly more than one quarter for workers aged 55 or older.