Despite this, Bush lost all 3 states, while Trump won all 3 states. The difference is that Clinton significantly underperformed other Democratic candidates.
There was a big 3rd party vote surge in 2016, 4% higher than in 2012 or 2020, led by Gary Johnson, and also a bit by Jill Stein. One could argue that this was due to dissatisfaction with Clinton, but in any case, it seemed to hurt Clinton more than Trump -- who ended up losing all 3 states in 2020 despite performing slightly better in them than 2016.
Bush 2004: Michigan 47.81% Pennsylvania 48.42% Wisconsin 49.32%
Trump 2016: Michigan 47.5% Pennsylvania 48.18% Wisconsin 47.22%
Despite this, Bush lost all 3 states, while Trump won all 3 states. The difference is that Clinton significantly underperformed other Democratic candidates.
There was a big 3rd party vote surge in 2016, 4% higher than in 2012 or 2020, led by Gary Johnson, and also a bit by Jill Stein. One could argue that this was due to dissatisfaction with Clinton, but in any case, it seemed to hurt Clinton more than Trump -- who ended up losing all 3 states in 2020 despite performing slightly better in them than 2016.