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A comment on Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf].

Re:Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy ... by halflings on Thursday October 13, 2022 @06:57AM (#33189442)
The paper doesn't mention any baseline, and so claims like "86% accuracy" are a bit useless: what if players do the same action 85% of the time? Then the model wouldn't be not predicting much. If on the other hand the most common action happens only 30% of the time, then that would be an incredibly strong result.
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Re:Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy ... by littlestymaar on Thursday October 13, 2022 @07:08AM (#33189502)
I wonder what accuracy you'd get in a basketball game with the following constant predictor: “the player who has the ball will dribble”.
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Re:Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy ... by bluGill on Thursday October 13, 2022 @09:18AM (#33190573)
Bump-set-spike. That is how all great players play. There are exceptions for things like they messed up; or are exploiting surprise to do something wrong hoping it works out.

At amateur level it is much harder to predict as nobody follow thee proper order, and in turn this makes it really easy for someone just a little better than average win.

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