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Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by peteretep on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @06:06AM (#3318830)
The Pound (GB, rather than Syrian) is doing just fine - almost no-one can borrow as cheaply as the UK can, and inflation is a little too high, but that's factored in to the price. The UK also still maintains an AAA rating, and unlike much of the other European AAAs, isn't on credit watch either. The UK economy isn't growing so well, and we won't have eliminated the structural benefit as soon as they'd have liked, but ain't nothing wrong the Pound.
Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by nhaehnle on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @06:33AM (#3318902)
The UK economy isn't growing so well, and we won't have eliminated the structural benefit as soon as they'd have liked

This is largely by choice. The UK government is on the forefront of the austerity crowd. They cut spending and fire people. Is it any surprise that GDP (which is basically the sum of all spending) is on a disappointing trajectory?

In a way, the UK government is doing economics a huge favor by acting as a laboratory that implements unneeded austerity.

The proponents of austerity predicted an upswing of activity as a result. I would say their theory has been proven wrong by now.

Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by peteretep on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @06:50AM (#3318934)
As with all economics, anyone suggesting they know with any certainty at all how something is going to turn out is trying to separate you from your money ;-)

The Economist has a pretty good article this week looking at just this: http://www.economist.com/node/21541021 - I'm not sure if the full text is available to non-subscribers. Their opinion seems to be that the austerity plan was basically right, but it could now be loosened a little to encourage growth.

Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by nhaehnle on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @07:58AM (#3319075)
A quote from the article:

Left untackled, the budget deficit, which at 11.2% of GDP in 2009-10 was larger than those of almost all other rich countries, would soon have undermined confidence in the government’s ability to service its public debt.

This is the crucial flaw in the article's argument. The UK government is monetarily sovereign, and therefore always able to service its debt. That pretty much destroys the article's argument in favor of austerity.

Note that, unlike economists, most bond traders seem to actually understand the importance of monetary sovereignty. This is why you now hear talks about Germany's debt possibly being downgraded, but nothing about the UK or Japan, and not any more about the US (where the only thing that was ever in question was the government's willingness to pay, not its ability).

Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by peteretep on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @08:14AM (#3319110)
> This is the crucial flaw in the article's argument. The UK government is monetarily sovereign, and therefore always able to service its debt. That pretty much destroys the article's argument in favor of austerity.

This is almost true technically, but not true how it matters. In order to service "unserviceable" debt, they need to cause inflation. Expected inflation gets priced in to bond yields, and inflating your way out debt ends up being not very useful if you will then need to go back to the money markets at some point in the future.

But actually, your central point is also not quite true: the UK government is NOT monetarily sovereign - in theory anyway - because it's the BOE who sets the money supply in practice. And it's for this reason that they have an inflationary target. Can the government intervene? Almost certainly. Will this further fuck market confidence and drive up bond yields? Yes. Do you get to a point where no-one will buy government bonds in GBP rather than USD? Absolutely.

Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by peteretep on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @06:07AM (#3318834)
Also note that in both the UK and the US, it is the nominally non-political central bank that controls the printing of money, not the government. This tends to give investors more confidence.
Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by nodata on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @06:13AM (#3318847)
The housing market is about to tank, the GBP is expensive compared to the Euro, there are jobless problems, and confidence is lulling. Which parts are doing fine?
Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by peteretep on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @06:16AM (#3318854)
Are you confusing the wider UK economy and the GBP?
Re: It's Your Choice, Europe: Rebel Against the Banks or A... by nodata on Tuesday December 06, 2011 @08:07AM (#3319093)
I'm talking about the UK. The UK economy and the GBP are both doing not so well.