> It's still little more than a fancy search.
I feel like the goalposts have been moved between your two comments. CoPilot is obviously not producing garbled nonsense, and it's also not just printing the top result from StackOverflow. It is producing code that references my variables, does the right thing 50% of the time, and usually compiles.
One of the nice little things is error messages- when I type `if (!foo) { throw ... ` CoPilot is able to complete a nicely formatted and descriptive error message from its understanding of my code. It's not garbled nonsense, and it's not just a search engine.
Does AI deserve the hype it sometimes gets? Not yet. But I think you're going to have to start digging a little deeper for your commentary.
Imagine if we were all self-replicating computers, and certain members of this silicon race began experimenting with making creatures with carbon macro-molecules to create organic intelligence, you could make the same claim in the other direction:
"There has been no step-change advancement in Organic Intelligence in, perhaps, 50 years. All we see today is a product of cell count, in neurotransmitter chemistry able to compress TBs of experiences into c. 300B neurons."
But I agree with you that everything they do seems intelligent because 'intelligence' was in the training data. Not much different from us, if you raise a human removed from society (take his intelligent training data away) he will not accomplish almost anything on his own.
If you think of AI as a dial from sample(data) to mean(data), then as the dial is turned towards the mean() you get more "generic" results, but also more garbled ones.
Copilot is more like a search engine, having turned the dial more towards sample().
The real invention of the NN is simply to provide that dial in a trainable way.
The only change to the "state of the art" is the size of the weights, and how long they take to train. This "advancement" is no more impressive than google indexing more webpages.
There has been no step-change advancement in AI in, perhaps, 50 years. All we see today is a product of hardware, in GPU/CPUs able to compress TBs of data into c. 300GB of weights. And likewise, the internet to provide it and SSDs to hold it.
The "magic" of AI is no more the magic of wikipida, here: copilot is good only because million+ programmers made github good.
It's still little more than a fancy search.