You're absolutely correct. Bullwhip effect was temporary inflation (but less likely to shift expectations) and then Russian (and OPEC+) effects on energy costs (which are likely to shift expectations and wages). The Fed has been trying to get inflation up since 2008... and have stated that they will target "average 2%" inflation over an unspecified term. Since inflation has been below that for a long time they wanted it to run hot. They want to inflate away some debt, just without imploding banks/insurers.