As with any war, propaganda is strong. Situated in the United States where I am, I have no doubt Ukraine is doing a bit worse than I think they are, and Russia is doing a bit better.

But the thing that nobody can hide behind the propaganda is the fact that the war is still ongoing. Relative to projections before the invasion began, the fact that there is still war in progress is itself, alone, a glaring and unmaskable indicator that this did not go according to plan.