No, this is the 'excess deaths' problem we just encountered estimating Covid fatalities. Either there are unexplained deaths that you can call low-dose deaths/illnesses, or there are not. If the influence per-person is so low it can't be detected that's the same as not causing many deaths/illnesses in the population.
> Note that there is no good evidence that LNT is incorrect.
Yes, there is. High natural background-radiation areas don't show an increase in cancers for residents.
> If anything, nuclear stans should fear abandonment of LNT
It's not a game and we aren't rooting for a team. We want the most accurate models.
> the assumption that the number of cancers caused is the maximum not ruled out by evidence.
This is the standard we should be using, but Chernobyl is the evidence you're talking about. We're actively developing the models based on observations.
> For low levels of radiation, this would result in LARGER estimates than from LNT.
No, that is the LNT model.
> excess deaths as in Covid
Deaths from a nuclear accident are much more diffuse than deaths from Covid were. Unlike the deaths from Covid, below a certain rate they are impossible to detect. The statistical noise in ordinary cancer deaths swamps them.
> Yes, there is. High natural background-radiation areas don't show an increase in cancers for residents.
This claim is directly rebutted by the NRC in their response to the LNT petition. The results cannot be disentangled from non-radiation effects on cancer rates. Epidemiology is a blunt instrument.
https://www.regulations.gov/document/NRC-2015-0057-0671
(look under "Comments Supporting the Petitions—Assertions That There Are No Observable Adverse Effects From Background Radiation")
> It's not a game and we aren't rooting for a team. We want the most accurate models.
No, what you want is something confirming your biases. This is apparent from this nonsense you are emitting, nonsense that is in direct contradiction to the non-cherry-picked and properly interpreted evidence.
> No, that is the LNT model.
Obviously not. There is some nonzero radiation level at which LNT is at the limit of statistical detectability. Below that radiation level, the effect by LNT becomes progressively weaker. So, at those lower radiation levels, the conservative estimate of the effect (as I defined it) will be larger than the prediction of LNT.
LNT is used at the low levels of nuclear accidents because the deaths are impossible to find. They are lost in a sea of ordinary cancers, statistically undetectable by any practical experiment.
Note that there is no good evidence that LNT is incorrect. The NRC responded to a recent petition to abandon LNT with a polite slapdown of the petitioners, for this reason.
This does NOT mean cancers predicted by LNT can ignored. Regulation is not a game of technologies being innocent unless proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt.
If anything, nuclear stans should fear abandonment of LNT. Without it, the regulatory framework could become more conservative, with the assumption that the number of cancers caused is the maximum not ruled out by evidence. For low levels of radiation, this would result in LARGER estimates than from LNT.