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Re:Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-... by fasthands9 on Thursday October 06, 2022 @02:53PM (#33112400)
If I'm not mistaken this link is exactly what I am describing. It simulates how close the winning candidate is to voters based on how people would vote. But it explicitly doesnt simulate how candidates would shift due to changing incentives.

In other words - it treats elections as a one side game where voters pick strategy (voting methods/preferences) and the candidates are stable. But it is a two-sided game where politicians change opinions/policies based on system as well.

Re:Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-... by godelski on Thursday October 06, 2022 @03:47PM (#33113119)
That is a hard thing to capture, but strategy is a decent way to approximate it. I do think this is fair criticism for what it is worth, but I don't think anyone has been able to create an accurate model for this (for any voting system) and I'm not sure you can accurately model this tbh.