I went through it and I’ve seen others think the same. It’s where you think you know the best way to do something so the old software is just plain wrong and “needs to be completely rewritten” but you don’t really have enough context to understand the business cost vs reward of a rewrite.

  X axis == time  
  Y axis == confidence

  |    :     :     /
  |    : re- :   _/
  |   /:write:\_/
  | _/ : it! :
  |/___:_____:______

I feel like it sits somewhere in this but I’m sure there’s a better term https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect#Overestimation

Edit: I screwed up the ascii chart a couple of times...