Is any part of you worried the S&P is headed 3600 -> 3500 -> 3200 -> 3000 -> 2800 given the current climate? I'm worried that the current P/E ratio (from EPS TTM, past 4 quarters) might be a bit "rosy", and the next 4 quarters of earnings are over-optimistically priced (not enough pain has been factored in/the effects of corporations having to try to grow for 18 months in a 4% interest rate environment hasn't been priced in yet).
If you check https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-mater... and https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf, analysts are forecasting 8-9% earnings growth 2022 -> 2023.
That means if we don't hit those numbers, the market will have to reprice itself, no?
Additionally, if the entire world stock market is $100tn, the US is sitting pretty, because at $49tn the US stock markets represent HALF of the entire world stock market.
I think they are an extremely small part of the $100tn global stock market that people here love talking about because they work there.
>Folks we are in a tightening cycle in order to fight inflation.
My point was that we are at multiples in-line with 1990, ya know when we had 8% 10Y yields.
Folks, call the end of the world at your own peril.