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A comment on I’m Still Going Long and Hoping the Markets Go Down. Parent comment

Re:I’m Still Going Long and Hoping the Markets Go Down by netcan on Saturday October 11, 2008 @08:25AM (#329663)
Assuming both scenarios are equally likely:

   Option 1 Average ROI = 50%
   Option 1 Average ROI = 12.5%
High risk premium. A good time to take risks?.. if you can afford it.
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Re:I’m Still Going Long and Hoping the Markets Go Down by furiouslol on Saturday October 11, 2008 @11:59AM (#329761)
Not for MS.

The probability of MS getting nationalized or going bankrupt is 90%. So it's 0.9 * 0 + 0.1 * 3 = 0.3 = -70%.

Whoops.

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Re:I’m Still Going Long and Hoping the Markets Go Down by netcan on Saturday October 11, 2008 @08:38PM (#330034)
Probably not 0 is it?
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