Re:Think you understand Monty Hall? Try the Tuesday boy prob...
by Deestan on Tuesday November 29, 2011 @08:58AM
(#3290277)
You're assuming a different selection model, in which a father of two boys is twice as likely to volunteer information if he has two boys: "Pick a child at random, then if it's a boy - say: I have a boy [blablabla] what is the other?"
However, you're doing this on an already selected sample by discounting all the girl-girl pairs. The selection rule in your logic then becomes a two-step "If you have at least one boy, then pick a child at random, then if it's a boy, say: [blablabla]"
Given that, your analysis is correct.
But, seeing as it is a wildly different selection model than what everyone else seem to work with, you should be explicit about it.
However, you're doing this on an already selected sample by discounting all the girl-girl pairs. The selection rule in your logic then becomes a two-step "If you have at least one boy, then pick a child at random, then if it's a boy, say: [blablabla]"
Given that, your analysis is correct.
But, seeing as it is a wildly different selection model than what everyone else seem to work with, you should be explicit about it.