Re:Think you understand Monty Hall? Try the Tuesday boy prob...
by ajanuary on Tuesday November 29, 2011 @07:48AM
(#3290089)
Using age as the ordering is not important. What matters is that when enumerating possibilities you count the probability of the first and then the second, and the second and then the first.
If manlier child = boy <==> one+ child = boy then surely in your final equation one of the sides boils down to Pr(two boys | impossible event) as the probability of either manlier child = boy or one+ child = boy must be 0?
The problem comes from the fact you've asked an impossible question, not from applying an ordering. If the ordering is used consistently, then it should all work fine.
If manlier child = boy <==> one+ child = boy then surely in your final equation one of the sides boils down to Pr(two boys | impossible event) as the probability of either manlier child = boy or one+ child = boy must be 0?
The problem comes from the fact you've asked an impossible question, not from applying an ordering. If the ordering is used consistently, then it should all work fine.