https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/20-years-of-home-price-chan...
>I do not think it is reasonable to assume a random piece of land will appreciate at 3% per year over a period of 30 years.
It seems very reasonable to assume that average real-estate will at least increase with inflation.
Your links show that average home prices have increased 100% in 20 years, which is a little over 3% per year during that period. They also show that prices have increased faster than inflation.
>Maybe in the most popular areas, it would sell for 1.03^30 = $2.4M after 30 years, but in the vast majority of the US, that has not historically been the case.
Your link literally shows that the majority of US homes doubled in price in the last 20 years, (which is even faster than 30).
Sure, This level of overperformance releative to inflation is likely unsustainable. However, it is reasonable and conservative to assume that housing and land will at least increase with inflation on average. Population keeps increasing in the US and land is finite.
are you saying that 3%/yr increase in price is too low, and the real number is likely higher? This is better supported by your data.
Average inflation for the last 60 years is 4.7%/yr.