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Re:Startups Are Hard. So Work More, Cry Less, And Quit All T... by smilliken on Sunday November 27, 2011 @09:04PM (#3284108)
Also consider that successful outcomes aren't distributed evenly; if you're exceptionally talented and work at an exceptionally good company, then it's not about odds, it's about execution. It's only gambling in the way a professional poker player gambles.
Re:Startups Are Hard. So Work More, Cry Less, And Quit All T... by dextorious on Monday November 28, 2011 @08:47AM (#3285803)
Tons of "exceptionally talented" programmers got their respective startups nowhere.

And the "exceptionally good company" -> success, borders on tautology, because how else do you measure an exceptionally good company besides success?

"""It's only gambling in the way a professional poker player gambles"""

Yeah, you influence your fate and all. But poker is even less random than startup success --at least randomness there is constrained, will on a startup you have tons of sources of randomness:

The startup founders, the employees, the economy in general, the society in general (fads, etc), investors, the client pool, you name it...