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Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by vlovich123 on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @09:28PM (#32832241)
It’s more about install base and size of marketplace than technical abilities I think. The primary drivers of that is things like the quantity of quality software at an inexpensive price, fit and comfort, and price. For all the excellent advancements made on the technical side, basically the only funding for VR content comes from FB and hobbyists which limits adoption. There’s also secondary things around it not being usable for meaningful productivity (and even when it is, it doesn’t realize the dream of making you more productive).

It’s all early days but I think OP is very correct. 20k is comparatively impressive but absolutely shows how limited in scope a “runaway” success looks like. Think of it this way. Traditional console/PC games every year have several AAA titles that sell millions of copies each and have millions of people playing online. Compared with VR where Beat Saber is basically the #1 game for several years. That’s a massive marketplace to sell into with a long track record of winning formula (that’s why gameplay and business modes aren’t innovated on too much). That kind of stuff hasn’t happened for VR yet. Note that I’m not saying it won’t.

Also I wouldn’t look at Steam numbers here - Quest, which is the number 1 VR headset in the world, doesn’t make its analytics visible there [1]. VRChat is top 10 but Beat Saber is more popular I think. So the conclusion is that VRChat is the #1 VR game for PCVR which is a comparatively stagnant market and doesn’t speak to the broader ecosystem.

[1] https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/31585546237...

Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by spartanatreyu on Wednesday September 14, 2022 @12:39AM (#32833385)
Just on the point about steam numbers and analytics, according to the August 2022 Steam Hardware Survey, the Oculus Quest 2 and the Oculus Rift S makes up 49.25% and 11.05% of the VR headsets used on Steam respectively.
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by vlovich123 on Wednesday September 14, 2022 @01:30AM (#32833629)
Yes and I think that proves my point. The majority of quest 2 users are not using link. So if it’s half of pcvr, then the stream vr stats are skewed towards “typical” pcvr usage which distorts the true vr story which is dominated by mobile. It’s like looking at laptop software sales and making conclusions about the app market place ignoring that mobile dominates that space too.