Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by zanecodes on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @06:07PM
(#32830807)
As I've heard it said: sigmoid functions look a lot like exponential functions, right up until they don't...
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by marcosdumay on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @10:29PM
(#32832629)
Of course, the relevant thing to know is always if that one important point comes after or before the curve's first inflection.
Dan Luu: "Kurzweil pushes the date this is expected to happen back by more than one year per year (the last citation I saw on this was a 2016 prediction that we would have unbounded life expectancy by 2029), which is characteristic of many of Kurzweil's predictions."