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Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by pessimizer on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @04:34PM (#32829863)
Kurzweil: "In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now we’re adding almost a half a year every year. With the revolutions in genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of our own organs and tissues, and related developments in bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years."

Dan Luu: "Kurzweil pushes the date this is expected to happen back by more than one year per year (the last citation I saw on this was a 2016 prediction that we would have unbounded life expectancy by 2029), which is characteristic of many of Kurzweil's predictions."

Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by zanecodes on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @06:07PM (#32830807)
As I've heard it said: sigmoid functions look a lot like exponential functions, right up until they don't...
Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by marcosdumay on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @10:29PM (#32832629)
Of course, the relevant thing to know is always if that one important point comes after or before the curve's first inflection.