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Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by m0llusk on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @04:33PM (#32829843)
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner's work on forecasting yields interesting perspectives on predictions like these:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting%3A_The_Art_an...

Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy by bo1024 on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @05:25PM (#32830377)
As discussed in the article.