I think Russian bet is that Europe would take 3-7 years to shift dependence away from Russian gas and that in the mean time a lack of access to cheap energy will lead to economic collapse, which will ultimately make the shift even harder. Putin is not testing our resolve but our ability.

I suspect the goal is also also to trigger conflicts between EU member nations over energy scarcity. E.g. Germany has enough gas to last Germany for the winter so it prioritizes Germany and throws Lithuania under the bus so Lithuania lashes out, etc. A short term scarcity will lead to long term fractures - maybe even EU exits.

Meanwhile, this opens the door for politicians who will make peace with Russia and bring the gas taps back online and revive a sputtering economy - a role that Orban seems to be trying to fill pre-emptively.