But when you talk about incentive structures you have to consider both sides to understand the final price. Taking a one sided view doesn’t explain the final price at all.

Which side am I missing? When people buy cigarettes at the store, it's generally understood that the tax they're paying is used, in part, to offset the social ills of smoking. I would expect a similar understanding when purchasing large cars.

The insurance company doesn’t care about your safety, just how risky you are and the expected payout for insurance over your lifetime subtracted from the income produced from the policy. They don’t increase it to change behavior as you imply. This is different than the government taxation which is less about revenue and costs than about public health incentive creation.

Okay. In that case, I think I strongly prefer the tax!

> Okay. In that case, I think I strongly prefer the tax!

I'm reading this as you preferring a moral solution rather than a technical one? You must feel pretty confident that the folks in charge of governing will always have priorities that align with your own.

These are both moral solutions, in my book; the GP has convinced me that one is more effective than the other.

I don't think any such law will ever come into effect. So I don't feel the need to be confident (or the opposite) with respect to my elected officials. It's all wishing.