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A comment on Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?. Parent comment

Re:Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year? by highwaylights on Friday September 02, 2022 @06:15PM (#32696321)
US birth rate: 1.70 France birth rate: 1.87 Japan birth rate: 1.36 Pakistan birth rate: 3.45

So Pakistan, unlike many more developed countries, has a birth rate higher than the replacement rate, but significantly lower than it’s 1950 to 2000 highs over 6 - and trending downwards.

The population would be expected to drop precipitously, but not soon.

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Re:Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year? by Gibbon1 on Saturday September 03, 2022 @05:06AM (#32700081)
I think Mexico's fertility rate was around 6 in 1975. And is now 2.10 or something. Basically Pakistan is 20 years behind Mexico demographically. Mexico will probably peak in 30 years.

Not sure about Pakistan because a Pakistan of 500 million doesn't seem sustainable.

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Re:Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year? by acchow on Friday September 02, 2022 @08:10PM (#32697194)
Your logic is not sound.

As long as birth rate remains above the replacement rate, population will not drop.

Pakistan's birth rate has fallen significantly (but still above the replacement rate), so you will expect population growth to plummet, but not the population number itself

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Re:Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year? by highwaylights on Saturday September 03, 2022 @04:55AM (#32700035)
My point is that the current trajectory would soon make the birth rate below the replacement rate.
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