Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution

Re:Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution by earl on Wednesday November 23, 2011 @01:17AM (#3269031)

Thanks. I found estimates of 3.4MM android tablets as of mid October [1]. Pretty dismal figures or Google would be trumpeting them. Still, I think most of my point holds -- if Amazon sells 5MM kindles they won't just have a good slice, they'll have over half the market. And if your outside the US figures are correct, Amazon will hold an even bigger slice of people who can afford and will purchase android tablet apps.

[1] http://www.slashgear.com/googles-honeycomb-offensive-musters...

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Re:Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution by fpgeek on Wednesday November 23, 2011 @02:35AM (#3269176)

Also, don't be so quick to conclude Amazon will have over half even the US market. You're forgetting to count the Nooks (which have to be counted if you're counting Kindle Fires, of course). The best number I've found is about 3 million from March 2011 [1], with B&N claiming an unspecified "millions" at the Nook Tablet launch.

That means, to win in the US at the end of the year (since they're not competing internationally), Amazon has to beat:

* ~3 million Nook colors sold as of March 2011 +

* Nook Colors sold between March 2011 and the end of the year +

* ~1 million Android tablets sold through October 2011 (NPD numbers excluding TouchPad) +

* Android tablets sold in November and December

Theoretically, 5 million might be enough for Amazon, but you'd have to think:

* that Nook Color sales collapsed soon after March

* the Nook Tablet will flop

* Android tablet vendors can't even replicate their sales-to-date during the holiday season (even though there are new quad-core models and cheaper 7-inch models, among other things)

Personally, I think the more interesting race is Kindle vs Nook one-on-one. Nook, of course, has the early lead, but Kindle is selling faster. I think everyone expects Kindle to win eventually (absent a game-changing move by B&N), but will it be this year?

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nook_Color

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Re:Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution by fpgeek on Wednesday November 23, 2011 @01:48AM (#3269094)

You seem to be presuming that people outside the US can't afford or won't purchase Android apps.

Given that outside the US includes Europe, Australia/New Zealand and the more affluent parts of Asia (Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc.) and those are the places I'd expect official Android tablets to be selling, that assumption seems strange to me.

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