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Re:U.S. life expectancy drops sharply, the second consecutiv... by epgui on Thursday September 01, 2022 @12:00AM (#32671796)
I only have a MSc, but with a more biomedical focus. I disagree with your overall impression and contextualization (even if you may be right on some of the finer points). I don’t agree with your assessment of Topol’s credibility, or on that of the relevance and quality of the Nature article.
Re:U.S. life expectancy drops sharply, the second consecutiv... by timr on Thursday September 01, 2022 @12:11AM (#32671886)
You're obviously entitled to your opinion, but "I don't agree" is not a rebuttal to the specific claims I'm making about Al Aly's work. I'm not asking anyone to believe me because I have a certain degree; I'm pointing out real limitations and problems with the research.

For example, there's absolutely nothing stopping Al Aly from using a real, consistent control (e.g. influenza, or even just the same negative control) instead of a grab-bag of different illnesses. The reason he switches them with every paper is probably because his synthetic weighting scheme produces inconvenient results from experiment to experiment when the same control is used. But we can only speculate, because we don't have the data. Remember: he's re-weighting his covariates using these controls! This is a real, objective problem.

My opinions about Topol are my own, which is why I said they're editorial, but I'm tired of the guy's constant doom-and-gloom messaging and inability/unwillingness to critically appraise data. Even in the most charitable, rational take on Al Aly's work, you can't casually extrapolate it to the entire population the way that Topol does.

Re:U.S. life expectancy drops sharply, the second consecutiv... by epgui on Thursday September 01, 2022 @01:22PM (#32679791)
I know that, I just: 1) didn't have the energy to expend explaining in great detail why I thought you were wrong, and; 2) believed you were sufficiently credible and also incorrect that it was important enough for other people to voice their disagreement.

Lazy? Guilty as charged.