Re:‘We were all wrong’: how Germany got hooked on Russian en...
by jfengel on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @10:32AM
(#32565479)
I'm reminded, indirectly, of the famous (and famously misunderstood) "appeasement" of Germany by Chamberlain.
Chamberlain was a skilled and experienced politician, who was in no sense "naive". He knew perfectly well what a reprise of the first World War would mean for Germany: a complete destruction of its industrial base and its resources. It was a war Germany could not win, and would be foolish to try.
It did not win, and didn't really come close, despite early successes created by surprise. The surprise over, they were gruelingly beaten down, at immense cost to the entire world. It was stupid and worthless and cruel -- and did not even benefit them.
Russia has put itself in the same place. They cannot win anything important. Even if they take Ukraine, they've isolated themselves, and made their military a laughingstock. They can try to recreate the Russian Empire, but Putin would just be a tinpot dictator, not a world force. They'll have destroyed their economy, and no amount of telling each other that they did it to fend off a nefarious West will take the sting out of that.
Russia failed to look out for their own self interest, and Germany was wrong to imagine that they would. But it's not as self-evident as other posters here have suggested. It's like a weather report: if it says 10% chance of rain, you didn't do the wrong thing by skipping the umbrella, even if you got wet. That's a reality of international relations.
There will be a lot to study over the coming decade about what we've learned. And much of what we've learned is how badly we screwed ourselves over the past half-century by not taking climate change seriously.
Chamberlain was a skilled and experienced politician, who was in no sense "naive". He knew perfectly well what a reprise of the first World War would mean for Germany: a complete destruction of its industrial base and its resources. It was a war Germany could not win, and would be foolish to try.
It did not win, and didn't really come close, despite early successes created by surprise. The surprise over, they were gruelingly beaten down, at immense cost to the entire world. It was stupid and worthless and cruel -- and did not even benefit them.
Russia has put itself in the same place. They cannot win anything important. Even if they take Ukraine, they've isolated themselves, and made their military a laughingstock. They can try to recreate the Russian Empire, but Putin would just be a tinpot dictator, not a world force. They'll have destroyed their economy, and no amount of telling each other that they did it to fend off a nefarious West will take the sting out of that.
Russia failed to look out for their own self interest, and Germany was wrong to imagine that they would. But it's not as self-evident as other posters here have suggested. It's like a weather report: if it says 10% chance of rain, you didn't do the wrong thing by skipping the umbrella, even if you got wet. That's a reality of international relations.
There will be a lot to study over the coming decade about what we've learned. And much of what we've learned is how badly we screwed ourselves over the past half-century by not taking climate change seriously.