Re:Taleb - the new sage of Wall Street |
by jon_dahl on Monday October 06, 2008 @06:28PM
(#325401)
Taleb isn't saying that this event can't be explained ("simple debt implosion"), or that no one predicted it. He's saying that the markets as a whole didn't take into account what ended up happening.
This crisis is built upon the fact that people thought they could predict mortgage repayment rates, and they didn't expect a major decline in housing prices. Huge parts of the world economy took these bets. The unexpected happened. Hence the black swan.
In some respect, what Taleb is saying is obvious - markets aren't predictable, and it is unwise to place bets that will kill you if your predictions are wrong. Too bad more people didn't do this.
This crisis is built upon the fact that people thought they could predict mortgage repayment rates, and they didn't expect a major decline in housing prices. Huge parts of the world economy took these bets. The unexpected happened. Hence the black swan.
In some respect, what Taleb is saying is obvious - markets aren't predictable, and it is unwise to place bets that will kill you if your predictions are wrong. Too bad more people didn't do this.