> You can even run your own VPN on hosted infra.

This comes with its own risks and you lose some advantages of a commercial service, such as being "lost among the crowd" of other VPN users.

What if you provision a new IP address every other week/month? i.e Assuming the provider allows it and the cost is negligible

If your hosting provider makes similar privacy guarantees to a similar VPN provider, then perhaps. For bonus points, use a hosted VM and commercial VPN in serial.

Again though, if the US Government is a potential adversary, there's still risk here. Intelligence services could have a 0-day on your linux distro, or an operative within the hosting company. If they get access, they can turn your hosted VM against you.

I think you just have to assume there's a possibility that the infrastracture can be compromised at any moment. For both of these two options. Guarantees from providers are valid until the day they are not.

Though a point has to be made about using a hosted VM for VPN purposes, you have some level of control about which specific software, configuration and encryption schemes etc. you want to use for your stack. Only downside is that currently there isn't sufficient hypervisor protection from the host kernel afaik.

However I do agree with you that either way, the risk threshold is too high if you are concerned about high level state actors. Neither commercial VPNs nor hosting providers can solve the "anonymity" problem for you.

> You can even run your own VPN on hosted infra

True. But we know very few people do that

So now you trust the infra hoster AND their own ISP.

You will always have to trust someone. Having more options when choosing who you trust is a good thing. Does that make sense to you?