Being able to answer that confidently requires some understanding of the problem domain which not everyone has. This is especially true for these big claims where people might think that a large company wouldn’t rationally make claims like this which would expose them to liability unless it really was almost done, not realizing the degree to which Elon will in fact take that risk just to cast himself as the hero of a 90s sci-fi novel’s back story.

Not really.

All it really takes is a brief look at history to determine that Elon Musk has been saying FSD is less than 6 months away for well over 5 years. Some basic pattern matching skill should instill the idea that FSD is not actually coming anytime soon, and that it's all marketing bullshit.