Had a quick skim of the first reference. It would take me days to digest it all. One thing I think of though is Italy. Very strict right. Except as I recall they weren't, until it got real bad. So high deaths due to fast spread can cause lockdowns. This might skew things.

I am not say "always lock down", but when it is appropriate it is a good tool. NSW, Australia was very locked down ... until vaccination rates were up high and then it suddenly wasn't. I feel like although NSW has it's fair share of blunders, it did pretty well overall. Some of that was good luck despite some bad decisions. But I am happy with the lockdowns even though they were disruptive. Some businesses suffered, and some did better. Suburban hospitality seemed to do well as people working from home are now getting their lunch local not in the city.