Given that the fatalities in 2020 went up a lot among black Americans, barely budged among white ones and went down a lot among Asian Americans, I consider the above theory to be total bunk (unless somehow only black Americans were benefitting from congestion reduction, while white Americans were as stuck in traffic as ever).

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...

Given that racial patterns of changes in traffic fatalities match very closely those in homicides since 2020 (where, again, rate of homicide victimization went up a lot among black Americans, and only mildly among whites), I’d rather suspect common reason behind both.

That's an interesting find, did not know this was tracked. It also says there was a big increase in fatalites for all other races that were not black, white, asian, or american indian.

The rise in traffic deaths predate the pandemic. I do think that to some degree less traffic does encourage more dangerous driving, but I suspect it's not the whole (or even main) cause.

I suspect a large part of this is the change in the kind of cars that are on the road. Trucks and SUVs predominate in the US now, and sedans are a rare sight these days. More mass = more deadly. Also importantly trucks and SUVs nowadays are obsessed with an "aggressive stance" - i.e., tall hoods which increases impact injuries to pedestrians, and also reduce cockpit visibility.

This has been known to road safety activists for years, but the mainstream media is just starting to catch on. See for example this SUV that has a full 16-foot blind spot in front of the car: https://twitter.com/PickledEntropy/status/155387204384156876...

tl;dr: American car purchases have trended towards heavier cars with deadlier geometry and worse driver visibility, which IMO is a huge contributor to these stats.

[edit] For some additional color, in 2014 SUV sales overtook sedan sales for the first time [1] and by 2019 SUVs were out-selling sedans by 2:1. [2]

[1] https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-autos-suvs-c...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/suv-sales-best-s....

Also, to fully drive home the "deadlier geometry" side of things, see the difference here between a 1994 Toyota Tacoma [3], curb weight 3100 lbs, and a 2022 Toyota Tacoma [4], curb weight 4500 lbs:

[3] https://images.app.goo.gl/rjU2pu3g7Wqv9o6P9

[4] https://images.app.goo.gl/TcKRSYybd1f1NzkR8

The frontend height difference, as well as the sheer mass difference, is stupendous. This is what's causing people to die en masse on roads.

The Onion has been lampooning this trend recently

[1] https://www.theonion.com/conscientious-suv-shopper-just-want...

[2] https://www.theonion.com/new-ford-f-450-comes-with-shotgun-i...

But Americans have decided that they need to drive an entire apartment around to get groceries, and auto manufacturers have been happily servicing them with subprime loans.

You can clearly see the jump in the pandemic in fatalities as compared to miles traveled.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_...

I don't think it's SUVs. Most likely stimulus checks and unemployment bonus payments allowed more people to afford vehicles for the first time.

In my area there is always a huge rash of traffic accidents around "tax time."

They also create blind spots for other drivers. I’ve noticed this when turning left and a huge truck or SUV is on the other side, it’s hard to tell if there’s a car coming because they’re blocking part of the view.

> a rare sight these days

Rare sight? Where do you live around if you don't mind me asking.