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A comment on XKCD's Randall Munroe runs Monte Carlo on Intrade's per-state markets . Parent comment

Re:XKCD's Randall Munroe runs Monte Carlo on Intrade's per-s... by andreyf on Saturday October 04, 2008 @10:54AM (#323500)
Because markets are imperfect.

"It is based on Intrade.net state-by-state prediction market odds..."

When betting state-by-state, people think Obama is doing better than when they bet nationally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method

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Re:XKCD's Randall Munroe runs Monte Carlo on Intrade's per-s... by paulgb on Saturday October 04, 2008 @11:36AM (#323512)
I bet there's some money to be made on prediction market arbitrage if you know what you're doing.

Also: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-su...

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