Is not most physics based on very extreme oversimplifications?

They are still very useful because errors average out, but for example: we don't know why fluid simulations work, in fact aerodynamics is an entire empirical field.

This was seen in F1 this year. All cars bouncing on straights, it was even given the name porpoising by the pilots. The teams never expected it, because the simulations never discovered anything about it.

Also: all the work of AlphaFold predicting protein structures.

Physics are awesome at predicting planetary motion, but stuff at smaller scales require a lot of empirical engineering to figure out.