I intended my post to summarize the ongoing work on the replacements for the various things people cared about in Flash, specifically to make it clear that HTML does have all the same use cases in mind. As each new technology becomes available, more bits can migrate off of Flash.
Flash needs to start dying now, so everybody on the sinking ship can start figuring out what they need and solidifying the replacements. It'll have a lingering death scene, so the sooner it starts, the sooner it finishes. If the replacements don't work, they need fixing, without people thinking "oh, I'll just use Flash instead". People need to think "no, it needs to work now, I need to migrate off of Flash as soon as possible".
Ideally, in the next couple of years, we'll get Flash to the point that Java has reached now: an oddity that the occasional legacy site uses.
"Partly works, recent hiccups, runs on good hardware only, in progress (aka not here yet), blocked, smaller install base..."
I am all set for Flash to die, but I am not sure the web is QUITE ready for it to die yet. Replacements are coming quick... but the operative word is "coming". I look forward to the day it's all really here and ubiquitous as Flash is/was.