> Typically layoffs hit civil servants with a lag of a few years since government budgets are already decided before economic down turns, and only really impacted when the next budget is decided.

For federal government, it is usually delayed because downturns tend to provoke temporary countercyclical deficit spending, and thus hiring.

For state governments it is often sooner because operating deficits are structurally more difficult for them, so revenue cuts are reflected in spending more directly, though short-term circumstances may be addressed by furloughs, hiring freezes, real pay cuts via wage freezes during inflation, effective (temporary or permanent) pay cuts by altering employer/employee sharing arrangements for benefits, attrition, and other non-layoff means.