That's really the calculation people need to make.
At a large tech employer? How are they doing? Is what you're working on strategic? Do you seem to be valued or are you maybe a bit on the bubble?
Depending on the answers, it may make sense to stay put or it may make sense to find a life raft even if it isn't as cushy in some ways as where you are. And, as someone else noted, industries aren't homogeneous. Individual employers matter.
I wouldn't worry too much if I were at a similar company.
Getting laid off during Covid was a boon for many people
During dot-bomb, I got lucky and landed another (lower paying) job with someone I knew at a small company. But there were a lot of people who were out of work or underemployed for a long time. And some I knew on the older side never really recovered I think.
if Peter Zeihan is right about population and boomers. our world is shrinking with less young people for consumption, boomers retiring and taking their money to less risky investment. the money that prop up start up could be dry pretty soon.